Afghan-US BSA remain key challenge for Afghanistan in 2014

By: Tawab Malekzad

KABUL: (MEP) – The relation between Kabul and Washington is in its all-time low. The Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that was supposed to be signed by the end of last year has been dragged over into this year without any clear future. Rangin Dadfar Spanta, Karzai’s national security adviser, has expressed optimism about the BSA getting signed before Karzai’s term ends, yet the deadlock on the BSA continues with the Afghan government’s anti-American rhetoric.

The political and security uncertainties that this deadlock has cause dare affecting the country’s economic growth and development achievements. According to the World Bank, last year Afghanistan’s economic growth slowed from 14.4% in 2012 to an estimated 3.1% in 2013 due to the political and security uncertainties projected for Afghanistan in 2014 and beyond.

In addition to the country’s economic downturn, the U.S. Congress is cutting 50% of development aid to Afghanistan this year. This cut will endanger the last decade’s achievements in farming, education, health and other developments.  If the BSA is not signed, Afghanistan will face further aid cuts, both financial and military, from the international community and the United States.

While the tension rises between Kabul and Washington, the security of Afghanistan and the future of the BSA remain uncertain. The United States is concerned that Afghanistan could become another Iraq if the U.S. withdraws completely.

Regional Security Pact

For the past few years, many in Washington believe that the insecurity in the region should be dealt with from within the region. Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES),a German think-tank, produced a joint declaration on regional peace and stability, in which experts from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and other countries in the region jointly established policy recommendations for the region.

The joint declaration was presented on February 4 in Washington, D.C. at the Atlantic Council. The declaration states, “A secure Afghanistan is crucial to establishing a secure region.” The declaration also calls for Afghanistan’s neighbors to take responsibility of supporting Afghanistan’s political and security transition in 2014.

The declaration’s regional policy recommendations overlook the complexity of the region’s history and politics. One of the declaration’s short-term policy recommendations for Afghanistan’s relation with Pakistan is to determine the root cause of the trust deficit between the two countries and remove the tension and the mistrust. However, the declaration does not provide any realistic mechanism or method of addressing and eliminating the mistrust.

The declaration further suggests encouraging all entities in Pakistan to cooperate in fighting against cross-border threats. Once again, the declaration overlooks the complexity of Afghanistan-Pakistan history and Pakistan’s friendly relations with insurgent groups, like the Haqqani network, which poses a security threat to both Afghanistan and NATO forces.

Although the regional and national policy recommendations provided by this declaration are an ideal way of achieving peace and stability in the region. The recommendations are not realistic due to the complexity of the region’s politics and history. Furthermore, the declaration fails to provide any methods or mechanisms of institutionalizing these policies in each country and in the region as a whole.

A regional security pact like this declaration is an ideal way of overcoming the insecurity of the region, but it is not realistic due to each country’s interest in the region. These policies could become effective only after there is a proper method of institutionalizing such policies. Additionally, these policies are not “quick-fixes”; rather, these policies will take decades to implement and tangible results ensuing from these policies will take even longer to be realized. In order for the region and Afghanistan to achieve security in the next few years, we need policies that are realistic and have fewer hurdles.

U.S.’s new approach

In order to keep the region secure and avoid another crisis like Iraq, the United States should focus on three issues that can be resolved relatively quickly and by realistic means.

First, the United States should keep pressuring Karzai’s government to sign the BSA. If Karzai’s administration refuses to do so, the BSA should be the first issue on the U.S.’s agenda when dealing with the administration after Karzai.

Second, the United States should be cautious of not damaging the security achievements gained since 2001. Specifically, the U.S. should not cut aid to Afghanistan because such aid cuts reverse the progress made since 2001.

Third, the United States should seriously reconsider its military aid to Pakistan because of the Pakistani military’s ties to the Haqqani network.The U.S. should pressure Pakistan financially by cutting aid and halting future aid,and demand Pakistan to cut its ties with any insurgent groups. Pakistan might not cut ties with the Haqqani network, but if the United States cuts military aid to Pakistan it will hinder its ability to aid insurgents across the border.

These policies could help the United States to achieve the security and stability in the region.

Tawab Malekzad is the founder and managing editor of Foreign Policy Today. Follow Tawab on Twitter @T_Malekzad