BY: AHMAD SHAH KATAWAZAI
KABUL: (MEP) – These days Kabul is rife with politicking particularly regarding the forthcoming elections. The coming months are especially important for the country where the first peaceful transfer of power is expected to take place in the new western backed fledgling modern democracy. This is also very important in the country history because (a) most of the international troops will be withdrawn by then in April 2014 when elections are expected to take place (b) pivotal Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) is expected to be signed in the near future (c) Talks with Taliban have potentially resumed after it had stalled with the opening of Taliban Office in Qatar.
Building coalition are under way, conspiracy theories and prediction regarding expected presidential election candidates are on the rise which are hotly debated around. Also the terror campaign from the insurgent’s side has taken its worse shape, insecurity, fight, terror and intimidation has further increased these days. To add fuel to fire the western media propaganda especially in the aftermath of the withdrawal of the international forces in the name of so called 2014 that with their withdrawal doomsday will hover over Afghans is spreading an umbrella of mistrust and suspicion over the masses.
However despite of major significant challenges the Afghan government has shown its firm commitment to hold election on its scheduled time.
Afghan president took an important step toward Peaceful transfer of power next year. The election slated for April would mark the first democratic transfer of power in the country. The election will be the most important Afghanistan political development and significant achievement in the year 2014 in addition to taking full security responsibility in the current year.
About month ago the country’s new Election Law on the Duties and Structures of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and the Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) was ratified by the Afghan president Hamid Karzai. The enactment of these laws laid to rest much of the criticism and objections on government and hope is there that democracy will take systematic roots in the country. Candidates are now allowed to openly run for next year’s presidential election and embark on a full-fledged election campaign.
Significant number of independent observers is expected in the forthcoming election which will monitor the electoral process and ensure transparency and fairness of the process.
Number of political parties is gathering from months in order to avoid overcrowded field of candidates like in the past and agree on nominating a single candidate for the upcoming presidential election thereby avoiding rift and dissemination of ballots among different groups.
No official candidate has emerged yet, but different politicians and parties are deeply involved in consultation and hobnobbing.
But the so called single coalition and political parties gathering apparently seems, has failed to reach an agreement and a consensus is not expected to emerge, as evident from their failed meetings to agree on a single candidate. The major political parties’ leaders have shown mistrust and doubts on reaching to any agreement.
However this will get clear in the near future as filing date for nomination for the presidential and provincial council elections has been schedules by the Independent Election Commission (IEC)to begin on September 16th.
After long time ambiguities and negative propagandas, at the moment its seems that major suspicions have been laid to rest and the elections are going to be held. The clock is ticking towards positive so far. Common people are optimistic that the elections will take place on time, as the international community especially U.S. are now mainly focused on Afghanistan’s upcoming political transition, they are putting pressure on the Afghan government to hold election on its scheduled time and bluffing that cut of funds could result on a major scale if there is any delay in it. Cut in funds could plunge the country in a chaos when major part of the country economy is supported by the donor countries.
However enormous challenges and problems still exist in front of the forthcoming election which needs serious consideration both nationally and internationally.
a) Security is the foremost challenge which could endanger and affect the election to major extent. According to Mr. Nooristani, the Independent Election Commission chairman, his major concern is the lack of security which could bring election under question.
This is a fact that security and election are interlinked and It is a challenging task for the Afghan security forces to spread out across the whole country in the far flung areas and secure the polling centers where in some areas still Taliban have a major sway.
The Insurgents have stepped up their attacks in remote areas as the election date is approaching.
b) In the past presidential elections (in some areas e.g. Mazar-e- Sharif) some segments of the population (mainly Pashtuns constituencies) in the pretext of insecurity were excluded from election, this if repeated could invalidate and delegitimize the next government having bitter consequences, aiding on one hand ethnic rift while on the other hand divert people support to the insurgents.
c) Transfer of ballot boxes to insecure areas is also challenging task for the government.
d) Weather will be severely cold when the elections are held. In some cold areas it will be difficult for the people to cast their ballots. Around half of the provinces will be snow bound by then when the elections are held, it will be enormously challenging for the people to cast their ballots due to severe cold and blockade of ways due to snow.
e) Neighbor countries mainly Iran and Pakistan meddling in the election process and their financial support to some specific groups are a major challenge. Weak and porous borders with neighbor countries are also a source of their interference in the country political affairs.
f) Rigging of election is also an expected challenge, concerns are raised by the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA) accusing that during the last two months in about 25 provinces around 10,000 under-age people who don’t have valid ID cards, have been issued election cards. According to FEFA report released this Wednesday insecurity, fraud and registration violation has marred the country voter registration drive from the very beginning.
g) Though it’s very late and yet the election complaint commission hasn’t been established.
h) Exact and precise numeric of population doesn’t exist; same applies to the issuance of cards to the masses.
i) Lack of strong political parties, increasing influence of warlords in the election process
j) Ethnic rifts, undemocratic negative competition among politicians and different group,
k) Lack of better monitoring system
l) Existence of Illegal armed groups and individuals
m) Insurgent, Mafia and foreign intelligence apparatus which is active in the country will try to disrupt or have sway over the election process
n) People lack of confidence and mistrust is also a challenge which needs an effort to recover back
Fundamental question in front of the aforementioned challenges is, if the Election Commission fails to announce the result at the end, what will be the consequence of that and what solution will be sorted out at that time?
Indeed these elections are very important and historic; this will be a peaceful transfer of power which could be observed very rare in the history of Afghanistan.
Definitely the aforementioned challenges could be addressed if steps are taken on proper time from now.
For example In the areas where security peril exists it could be addressed, like in accordance to the election law if in a constituency there is a security problem the independent election commission may suspend the election from the specified area until the removal and improvement of the security condition.
Indeed the insurgents would try to disrupt the voting process, they will intimidate the people causing insecurity in some areas and it is an open secret that the insurgents have influence and control over some areas in the country where no ballots could be casted.
The elections are not faced only with security challenges; there is plethora of challenges facing this nascent fledgling democracy where both internal and external pressures exist. However if from now bold and audacious steps are taken by the government and civil society, these existing and expected problems and challenges could be overcome.
Security, inclusivity, transparency and credibility of the election are the most significant determining factors for the legitimacy of the next government. The elections are needed to be fair and transparent to greater extent which could result as accepted nationwide.
The Afghan nation expects a lot from the newly appointed commissioners to meet their hopes which are expected to defy all pressures from inside and outside the country in front of the forthcoming elections.
Though significant encouraging steps have been taken by the government particularly the enactment of electoral laws, but still there is a long way to go and it remains to be seen whether the government will be able to address the myriad challenges ahead which still remains unaddressed.
Any manipulation or failure to conduct nationwide inclusive and credible election could endanger the whole process and could descent in chaos the already fragile country in more problems, Taken from khaama press.
Mr: Katawazai is a diplomat in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan.
