It’s hard for the US to find a plan for Afghanistan

By Yao Yuanmei

KABUL: (MEP) – Alternatively, the U.S. could support the Taliban to assume power. This option would likely end up in a shouting-match with the Karzai government and the Afghan Northern Alliance forces. As a result, the Afghan political situation would deteriorate. Furthermore, this would involve the problem of Pakistan security, because of the strong Taliban presence in the latter. This would also endanger the U.S. strategic goal of a decent pullout.

Another option would be to let the Afghan people decide by themselves. If the U.S. chooses this option, Afghanistan would probably descend into tangled domestic warfare. This would not only endanger U.S. strategic goals, but also undermine retention of Afghanistan as a forward military base.

Finally, the U.S. could seek support from other major countries to maintain a smooth political transition. If Washington seeks this option, it would need to seek cooperation with Afghanistan’s major neighbors, including Russia, Iran, India, China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. These countries, however, have their own interest demands from Afghanistan, and would be difficult to reach a consensus. Moreover, it would tend to encourage these major countries to infiltrate their forces into Afghanistan, thus damaging its interest in leading the post-war reconstruction of the country.

Looking at these options, it is difficult to see how the Americans can find a plan satisfactory to both sides. Accordingly, post-war Afghanistan faces a severe challenge in political stability.

Looking at the current American strategy, it seems to be preparing for a decent retreat instead of a complete withdrawal. And it will continue to use the military bases in Afghanistan. In this way, after 2014, Afghanistan will continue to be ravaged by civil war.

The flames of war will no doubt spread to the border of Pakistan. A large number of refugees will swarm into Pakistan. If the latter loses political stability, the border security of India, China and Iran will be threatened. An even worse scenario would be if Pakistan’s nuclear weapons fell into the hands of terrorists. The consequences of that are too dreadful to contemplate.

If the U.S. is willing to increase its investment and promote the reconciliation between the Taliban and the Karzai government, hopefully, civil war can be avoided. If the U.S. ends up doing nothing, many problems will remain in the post-war era for the Afghan people and those in neighboring areas.

China is promoting the development of the Silk-Road Economic Belt, and it has to pass through Afghanistan. So, any change of the situation in this area needs careful Chinese study.

The author works for the Center for Russian Studies of East China Normal University.

This article was translated by Li Jingrong. Its original unabridged version was published in Chinese.