U.S. Specialists Fears about future of Afghans without BSA

KABUL: (MEP) – With the fate of the Kabul-Washington security pact still in question, despite the Loya Jirga’s vote of approval last week, U.S. experts spoke to TOLO news and shared their opinions on the negotiations, and would could happen if the deal is not sealed.

Last Sunday, after the 2,500-person Jirga gathering voted overwhelmingly in favor of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) being signed promptly, President Hamid Karzai said he would not sign the accord until after the April elections, and then, only if the U.S. met three of his conditions: transparent elections in the spring, no raids on Afghan homes and a breakthrough in talks with the Taliban.

According to well-placed government sources, the precondition related to the elections has been taken off the demand table. After U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice met with Karzai in Kabul this week, the only two preconditions said to still be maintained by the Afghan President were those regarding raids and peace talks.

But U.S. officials maintain the accord must be signed before the end of the year, and that Washington has no way of securing peace in Afghanistan and getting the Taliban to the negotiating table “overnight.” They have said that if the agreement is not penned by 2014, there could be major issues in plans to keep a contingency of troops in Afghanistan after the NATO combat mission ends in 13 months.

Afghan officials and analysts have spoken out in droves this week to express support for the BSA and the Jirga’s decision, and harshly criticize Karzai’s abrupt change in stance on the issue. It was Karzai himself who convened the Jirga.

Meanwhile, a number of leading American analysts warned that if the BSA was not signed, and the U.S. cuts of military ties with Afghanistan, the country would likely see a resurgence of the Taliban, and parts of the Southern and Eastern regions would likely be isolated from Kabul entirely.

“If we suddenly cut off the Afghan government, there is a very serious risk that the country will divide, and that the Taliban will have great presence,” Anthony Carson from the Center for Strategic and Global Studies said.

U.S. officials have said that with the BSA in place they would likely keep some 10,000 troops in Afghanistan – likely supported by more NATO ally forces – in order to train, advise and assist the Afghan forces. Additionally, some 4.1 billion USD in military aid is said to be tied up with the pact.

Without the accord, Washington as indicated it may be left with no other choice than to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan and freeze funding. NATO allied countries have said they would follow the U.S.’ lead.

Many, including those in the Afghan security establishment, have said the Afghan forces are not ready to be left entirely on their own, and still require a great deal of support in training, logistics and funding. And with this year’s fighting season being one of the bloody on record, it does not look like the Taliban is on its last legs.

“The Taliban, unfortunately, have not gone away, and remain very, very resilient,” Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institute said.

O’Hanlon spoke about the military partnership between the U.S. and Afghanistan in both practical and principled terms, highlighting the fact that both countries have dedicated immense amounts of lives and resources into their common fight against the Taliban. He suggested not moving forward with the BSA would be “to throw away the sacrifice and the great investment that we have made through the years, with six hundred billion dollars in U.S. expenditures, and more than two thousand American lives lost.”

MPs in Kabul have said Karzai is playing a dangerous political game with the U.S. that has Afghanistan’s future in the balance. Some have said a civil war could unfold if the BSA was not in place, with foreign troops remaining in Afghanistan. Others have simply said they plan to leave the country if the deal is not sealed.

This week, Afghan politicians publically decried the President, and said he was acting out of personal interests rather than national ones.

In a meeting with a number of families who had lost relatives in conflict over the past 12 years, who also participated in the Jirga, Karzai said on Wednesday that he respects the decision of the Jirga, but he still won’t let his preconditions regarding raids on Afghan homes and the Taliban peace process.

“The Jirga decided on the security agreement and approved it…the Jirga represents the people of Afghanistan and is accepted by us,” he said. “But, the Jirga should have talked about peace, security, and if there is not peace and we sign the agreement, then the situation in Afghanistan would be disastrous.”